Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXAK67 PAJK 170623
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
923 PM AKST Tue Dec 16 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion for 06z TAF issuance

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Showers diminishing across the area tonight with some areas of
 precip lingering in the south through at least Thursday.

-Northerly outflow continuing and strengthening across the north
 through the next few days with freezing spray becoming more
 widespread and temperatures becoming colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/ Showers still linger this
evening across most of the panhandle, but they have diminished in
frequency and intensity throughout the day. Some isolated strong
showers can be encountered just offshore of Baranof Island and in
the vicinity of the low that is currently 70 miles S of Yakutat
this evening. Outflow winds across the north have somewhat
diminished this afternoon with gales only observed in Lynn Canal
and out of Taku Inlet this afternoon.

For the forecast, showers are expected to continue to diminish
tonight as outflow starts to increase in strength again. Any
additional accumulations are expected to be light. The main story
from then on will be the outflow which will be increasing
gradually through Wednesday evening to mid to strong gales for the
northern inner channels. These winds will also be bringing in
more cold air over the next few days with lows starting to dip
into the teens and single digits as early as Wednesday night
across the north. A cold weather advisory continues for the
Klondike Highway and one has been issued for the Haines Highway as
well starting Wednesday evening. With the wind and cold air,
freezing spray will also start becoming more widespread in the
north with heavy freezing spray becoming more widespread in Lynn
Canal and near Taku Inlet.

The only exception during this time is the far southern panhandle
where a couple lows heading toward Haida Gwaii will spread some of
their precip into the far south. Initially it will mostly be rain,
but I expect some mixing with snow to occur tonight into Wednesday
before becoming more snow later Wednesday night as more cold air
starts to advect into the area. Snow accumulation through Wed
night are expected to stay below advisory criteria right now, but
some areas could see higher accumulations if they stay colder then
what is depicted in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, the low that has been
hanging around the Gulf of Alaska will finally be ejecting inland
into British Columbia around the Dixon Entrance region. As this low
ejects inland, it will bring some precipitation to the southern
panhandle. Most of the precipitation that is expected to fall will
be in the form of snow. Places like Ketchikan and Prince of Wales
Island are expected to see a few inches of snow as this low moves
into the area. For the northern panhandle, colder temperatures are
going to be the main story as Arctic air returns to the panhandle.
For the Skagway and Haines areas, temperatures are expected to drop
to around 0 F while farther south, temperatures in the Icy Strait
region are expected to range from the teens down to around 0. Things
warm up as you head south, but not by much. Temperatures look to
stay in the 10s to 20s for the central and southern panhandle going
through the week and into the weekend. Outflow winds will continue
to persist with places like Lynn Canal will continue to see gales to
strong gales for the week. Temperatures are expected to slowly
moderate as we head into the start of next week but the next hope
for a warm up looks to mid next week when ensembles are showing the
potential of there is the potential for a low to form in the
northern gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday night VFR conditions continue to develop
across a majority of the panhandle, with isolated snow showers in
the central panhandle near Frederick Sound and Sumner Strait
being the primary holdouts. Anticipate VFR to hold for the Icy
Strait Corridor (Cross Sound to Taku Inlet) north through Lynn
Canal through the TAF period. For the central and southern
Panhandle (areas along and south of Frederick Sound) MVFR snow and
rain showers will rebuild Wednesday morning as a low passing
south of the panhandle will phase with a trough offshore of Prince
of Wales Island. This will push moisture into the central and
southern regions, with MVFR CIGS and potential for IFR VSBY;
higher confidence for IFR by Wednesday evening from moderate snow
showers. LLWS threats diminish Wednesday morning for the northern
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Continued areas of strong breezes (around 25 kts) to
isolated areas of gale force winds (around 35 kts), continue over
the NE gulf. This is due to a small low pressure system that will
move south tonight. Then the broad area of low pressure, over the
southern Gulf of Alaska ,weakens as it moves east Wednesday evening
into Thursday. At that time, late Wednesday, outflow develops as a
high over the Yukon strengthens. This will increase winds to ENE
gales over the NE gulf with freezing spray throughout the northern
inner channels and possibly into the NE gulf.

Seas tonight remain around 10 to 13 ft with a diminishing SW swell.
Gradual improving trend for seas over the next few days as the S
swell continues to subside through Wednesday. Combined seas expected
to subside to 8 ft by Wednesday except near outflow areas that could
see seas up to 15 ft in some areas due to the strong winds there.

Inside: The main impacts across the inside channels continue to be
increased winds from northerly outflow and freezing spray concerns.
As of this afternoon, areas from N. Lynn Canal through Icy Strait
and out of Cross Sound continue to see north and easterly winds of
35 to 45 kts. Strongest winds continue to be near Eldred Rock and
Point Couverden. These stronger winds will continue for most of the
week, slightly increasing and moving farther south Thursday. At that
time, Thursday into the weekend, freezing spray continues to be a
large forecast concern. Heavy freezing spray is very likely
throughout Lynn Canal, over Glacier Bay, and through Taku Inlet.
Moderate to periods of heavy freezing spray are also likely through
Icy Strait, Cross Sound, Stephens Passage, into N Chatham Strait,
and into Frederick Sound. Even the southern inner channels have the
chance of light freezing spray occurring. A Marine Weather Statement
has been issued, and will continue to be updated, with more
information.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ318-325.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 PM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ319.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-053-643-651.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>034-641-642-644-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAB

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